Ulbrich Economic Update - Number 70 (March 2026)

Download the 16-page Economic Update for the full details of recent economic trends impacting the steel and commodities markets, as well as the associated industries across the globe. Continue for the Executive Summary.

The U.S. Economy

U.S. MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY REMAINED IN EXPANSION EARLY IN 2026, while consumer, housing, and leading indicators continued to signal a slower underlying growth trend, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI edged down to 52.4 in February from 52.6 in January, with new orders at 55.8, production at 53.5, backlogs rising to 56.6, prices jumping to 70.5, and employment still in contraction at 48.8. Factory orders fell 0.7% in December on weaker commercial aircraft bookings, durable goods demand was supported by a 0.6% increase in core capital goods orders and a 0.9% rise in core shipments, and U.S. manufacturing output rose 0.6% in January, the largest gain in 11 months, leaving factory production up 2.4% year-over-year. Forward-looking signals stayed softer, however, as The Conference Board Leading Economic Index fell another 0.2% in December to 97.6, its fifth straight monthly decline. Inflation remained firm, with CPI up 0.2% in January and 2.4% over the prior 12 months, while producer prices rose 0.5% on the month and 2.9% year-over-year, led by a 0.8% increase in final demand services. Conference Board Consumer Confidence rose 2.2 points to 91.2 in February, though the Present Situation Index slipped to 120.0 and Expectations improved to just 72.0. Consumer and housing data also pointed to caution, with retail sales unchanged in December, pending home sales down 0.8% in January to 70.9, and construction spending up 0.3% in December. February job cuts fell sharply to 48,307, and economists expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 59,000 in February after a 130,000 increase in January while the unemployment rate holds at 4.3%.

Steel Industry Updates

TRADE CASES AND CAPACITY SHIFTS DROVE THE METALS STORY, as 24 U.S. states challenged the Trump administration’s new global tariffs in court while the administration simultaneously imposed a fresh 10% tariff under Section 122 and signaled rates could rise to 15%. In steel-specific moves, Mexico launched an anti-dumping and subsidy probe into cold-rolled imports from the U.S., China, and Malaysia, the U.S. made minor adjustments to Korean plate countervailing duties, and Alton Steel moved toward closure with more than 3,000 assets headed to auction.

Automotive Trends

POLICY, RECALLS, AND EV COMPETITION KEPT THE AUTO SECTOR IN MOTION, as the Trump administration moved to unwind an EV-friendly fuel economy provision while Ford launched recalls covering roughly 4.9 million U.S. vehicles across separate braking, lighting, and wiper-related issues. Norway remained the benchmark for EV penetration, Chinese brands expanded deeper into South Africa, and Volvo recalled more than 40,000 EX30 SUVs over battery overheating risk. Toyota cut Middle East-bound production by nearly 40,000 vehicles due to Hormuz-related logistics disruptions.

Energy Sector News

POWER SECURITY, GRID DEMAND, AND SUPPLY RISKS DOMINATED ENERGY DEVELOPMENTS, as NextEra said it expects to add 15–30 GW of generation for U.S. data centers by 2035 and Babcock & Wilcox secured a $2.4B USD AI campus power project tied to Applied Digital. Peru suspended natural gas exports after a pipeline rupture.

Medical Insights

APPROVALS, PLATFORM BETS, AND HEALTHCARE RESTRUCTURING LED THE MEDICAL NEWSFLOW, as the FDA approved Johnson & Johnson’s Tecvayli/Darzalex blood cancer combination in just 55 days and cleared Ascendis Pharma’s weekly dwarfism therapy for U.S. launch. Tenaya signing an up-to-$1.13B cardiovascular research pact with Alnylam and Moderna settling a major COVID vaccine patent fight for up to $2.25B while also winning EMA backing for its combined COVID-flu shot.

Aerospace Developments

FLEET EXPANSION, REPAIR BOTTLENECKS, AND LEASING CONSOLIDATION SHAPED AEROSPACE, as Vietnamese airlines signed roughly $30B in Boeing aircraft deals and Delta added 34 more A321neos to support its premium-heavy fleet strategy. Dubai Aerospace agreed to buy Macquarie AirFinance for $7B, Shell advanced Venezuela’s Dragon gas project to support Trinidad LNG flows, and Embraer said the U.S. return to zero aircraft tariffs should help unlock future demand.

Commodities

CRITICAL MINERALS, CROP REALIGNMENT, AND PETROCHEMICAL RESTRUCTURING MOVED MARKETS, as rare earth shortages worsened for U.S. aerospace and semiconductor supply chains and Australia joined the G7 critical minerals alliance in a broader push to diversify away from China. South Korea approved its first petrochemical restructuring plan with more than 2T won ($1.39B USD) in support, SABIC swung to a 25.78B riyal ($6.87B USD) loss, and aluminum prices and premiums jumped as Gulf export disruptions hit Bahrain and Qatar.

Overseas

CROSS-BORDER INVESTMENT, TRADE REORDERING, AND TECHNOLOGY ALLIANCES KEPT GLOBAL FLOWS IN FLUX, as Japan’s U.S.-focused investment package expanded through announced projects totaling $36B and possible additions including nuclear power and copper refining. Trade friction and supply-chain reshuffling remained active, with India hit by U.S. solar duties, Indonesia redirecting more energy imports toward the U.S., Vietnam gaining Starlink approval while deepening trade talks with Washington, and Reliance securing a U.S. license to buy Venezuelan crude directly.

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