Ulbrich Economic Update - Number 66 (November 2025)

Download the 13 page Economic Update for the full details of recent economic trends impacting the steel and commodities markets, as well as the associated industries across the globe. Continue for the Executive Summary.

The Americas

U.S. MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY CONTRACTED AGAIN IN OCTOBER, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 48.7% compared to 49.1% in September. The New Orders Index rose slightly to 49.4%, while Production slipped to 48.2%. Prices remained elevated at 58.0%, reflecting continued cost pressures tied to tariffs and supply disruptions. Consumer confidence edged lower to 94.6 in October from 95.6 in September, as optimism about future conditions weakened. The Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% in September and 3.0% year-over-year, driven by higher energy and shelter costs, while core CPI rose 0.2%.

Retail sales excluding autos advanced 0.5% in September, though inflation-adjusted growth slowed to 0.2% as higher-income households sustained most spending. Existing home sales rose 1.5% to a seven-month high, supported by easing mortgage rates near 6.2%, though affordability and limited job growth continued to constrain demand. The ongoing federal government shutdown has delayed several major economic reports—including employment, construction spending, and trade data—creating uncertainty around broader economic momentum.

Overseas

INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY AND GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS CONVERGED, as the EU moved to curb Chinese influence in metals and technology, proposing steep tariff revisions and launching “RESourceEU” for critical raw materials. China’s GDP steadied near 5% despite property weakness, while its export bans on Nexperia chips caused global auto disruptions. Indonesia opened debt talks with China over rail losses, and South Korea secured U.S. approval to pursue nuclear-powered submarines alongside a new trade deal cutting auto tariffs.

Metals & Commodities

GOVERNMENTS DEEPENED RESOURCE SECURITY EFFORTS, with Canada unveiling a C$6.4B plan for 25 critical mineral projects and new Defense Production Act stockpiles. In the U.S., Cleveland-Cliffs advanced electrical-steel capacity under federal programs, while tungsten prices surged on Chinese controls. Goldman Sachs warned that China’s rare-earth dominance could disrupt $150B in global output under even modest supply shocks.

Steel Industry Updates

CAPITAL INVESTMENT AND STRATEGIC ALIGNMENT ACCELERATED, as U.S. Steel advanced its $14B modernization under Nippon Steel, including a $75M premium-thread expansion in Alabama and new safety reforms at Clairton Coke Works. Cleveland-Cliffs deepened its role in domestic electrification through a $400M Defense Logistics contract and DOE-backed furnace upgrades, while also piloting defect-free stamping on aluminum lines. Ryerson and Olympic Steel announced a $6.5B merger to capture service-center synergies, and POSCO was reported to pursue a 10% stake in Cliffs.

Energy Sector News

POLICY REVERSALS COLLIDED WITH NEW CAPITAL SPENDING, with the EIA warning that sustaining U.S. production will require new drilling despite record output. Deloitte projected higher oil and gas project costs under new U.S. trade measures, while BP divested $1.5B in pipeline stakes as part of its debt-reduction plan. DOE advanced its nuclear fuel initiative to build HALEU capacity for next-generation reactors, and tungsten price spikes from China’s export restrictions added cost pressures across drilling operations.

Aerospace Developments

ELECTRONICS RECOVERY OUTPACED MATERIAL SUPPLY, as Honeywell reported stabilization in avionics and satellite communication systems, offset by continued casting and forging shortages in engine production. The company maintained aerospace margins above 25%, reflecting steady demand and selective recovery across OEM programs.

Medical Insights

CAPITAL INFUSIONS AND REGULATORY MOMENTUM CONTINUED, led by Merck’s $70B U.S. expansion in manufacturing and R&D. Medline filed for an IPO valued near $50B, and Thermo Fisher prepared a $10B acquisition of Clario to grow its clinical research portfolio. The FDA granted accelerated approval to Stealth Biotherapeutics’ Forzinity, while Ypsomed announced a $200M North Carolina facility to localize injector production. Novo Nordisk’s oral semaglutide showed strong late-stage data ahead of FDA review.

Automotive Trends

PRODUCTION EXPANSION AND TRADE POLICY DOMINATED HEADLINES, as Stellantis committed $13B to U.S. operations to boost domestic vehicle output by 50%. Toyota recalled over 1M vehicles for software defects, while major automakers urged the White House to reconsider tariffs on robotics and machinery. Lucid reduced its 2025 production forecast amid supply constraints, and BYD entered Argentina’s EV market under temporary tari exemptions. Volkswagen accelerated its in-house chip development in China, and Nissan restructured assets and forecasts in response to tari-related losses.

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